Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 0.015720 0.017793 0.020055 0.022708 0.025739 0.029097 0.033106
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 0.012670 0.015539 0.018945 0.023299 0.028737 0.035328 0.043959
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 0.011027 0.014264 0.018330 0.023838 0.031146 0.040566 0.053719
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 0.009556 0.012901 0.017297 0.023539 0.032241 0.044037 0.061407
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 0.008460 0.011847 0.016476 0.023321 0.033280 0.047390 0.069159
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 0.007593 0.010984 0.015780 0.023133 0.034252 0.050644 0.077024
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 0.007089 0.010567 0.015648 0.023706 0.036338 0.055672 0.088061
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 0.006457 0.009886 0.015043 0.023472 0.037123 0.058737 0.096290
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 0.006147 0.009661 0.015093 0.024240 0.039532 0.064565 0.109654
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.005541 0.008907 0.014239 0.023452 0.039291 0.065989 0.115629
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.005094 0.008367 0.013674 0.023075 0.039677 0.068468 0.123681
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.004611 0.007725 0.012882 0.022229 0.039150 0.069271 0.128714
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.004459 0.007636 0.013027 0.023050 0.041711 0.075929 0.145693
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.004280 0.007487 0.013054 0.023665 0.043960 0.082262 0.162872
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.004106 0.007330 0.013049 0.024211 0.046123 0.088637 0.180903
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003827 0.006956 0.012618 0.023908 0.046597 0.091742 0.192502
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003585 0.006631 0.012249 0.023685 0.047200 0.095150 0.205143
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.003368 0.006337 0.011913 0.023494 0.047841 0.098686 0.218483
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.003263 0.006247 0.011961 0.024077 0.050146 0.105967 0.241240
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.003072 0.005973 0.011626 0.023839 0.050669 0.109429 0.255495
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.003004 0.005942 0.011770 0.024620 0.053491 0.118288 0.283885
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.002780 0.005575 0.011203 0.023818 0.052693 0.118813 0.291699
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.002615 0.005317 0.010841 0.023435 0.052807 0.121462 0.305227